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Impact of South Asian High Variability on Monsoon Precipitation in Pakistan

SUMMARY

The South Asian High (SAH) variability is known to have significant contribution in the success and failure of summer monsoon precipitation (JAS) of Pakistan situated within South Asia. This study aims to analyze the impact of South Asian High (SAH) variability on the summer monsoon precipitation in Pakistan. The principal component analysis shows strong positive temporal correlation coefficient between SAH (200 hPa) and monsoon (JAS) precipitation i.e. 0.7 for the period 1980-2010. The streamline and precipitation analysis shows that Pakistan receives heavy precipitation during strong SAH years (1988, 1992, 1994, 2010) due to westward (70°E-80°E) movement of SAH from its mean position and experience suppress precipitation during weak SAH year (1987, 1997, 2004, 2009) due to eastward (90°E-110°E) oscillation of SAH. The isotherms analysis shows negative anomalies in strong SAH years and positive anomalies in weak SAH years over most parts of Pakistan. The minimum values of divergence of moisture flux (DMF) at 850 hPa in strong SAH years and nil DMF in weak SAH years has been observed over western parts of Pakistan. The wind field (850 hPa) analysis has shown the evident stimulation of moisture from Arabian Sea incase of strong SAH years and quite minute stimulation of moisture in weak SAH years. Hence, it is evident from the study that the strength and oscillation of SAH and summer monsoon precipitation (JAS) in Pakistan are strongly inter-reliant upon each other. It is anticipated that climate change can lead the country towards extreme droughts and extreme flooding. This study will be helpful for the forecasters who can use the behavior of SAH (Tibetan High) as an indicator for prediction of intense and weak summer monsoon rainfall.

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