SUMMARY
The high increase in number of vehicles in Lao transport sector in the medium and long-term happens due to continuous growth in transport service demand, which in turn will increase energy consumption in the transport sector. Electric vehicle (EV) technologies can inhibit increment in energy demand growth and energy-related CO2 emissions in the transport sector; however, cost remains a barrier for the technology diffusion. In this study, a stock vehicle turnover model of the passenger vehicles was developed to assess the potential of EV technology employment for energy saving and CO2 mitigation in the case of Lao PDR. Three vehicle technologies of EV were chosen to develop countermeasure scenarios. They were the battery electric vehicles (BEVs), hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs), and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs). The Long-rang Energy Alternative Planning (LEAP) model was used to forecast sector-wise transport demand until 2050, considering the base year as 2010. Altogether three scenarios were developed namely, the business as usual (BAU) scenario that relies on conventional internal combustion engine vehicles (ICEVs), and two alternative scenarios, namely CM-R and CM-I scenarios, targeting the penetration of (i) BEVs, (ii) HEVs, and (iii) PHEVs. In addition to the analysis of emission mitigation and energy system impacts, co-benefits of CO2 mitigation are also investigated in terms of emissions of local air pollutants under modelled scenarios. Results show that in the BAU scenario, energy consumption in the transport sector will increase from 548 ktoe in 2010 to 2,823 ktoe in 2050 while CO2 emission will increase from 1,656 kt-CO2 in 2010 to 8,511 kt-CO2 in 2050. However, in countermeasure scenarios, the high penetration of EV technologies will result in reduction of CO2 emissions when compared with the BAU scenario. In co-benefit analysis, reduction in emissions of other air pollutants was also observed.