SUMMARY
Modeling insecurity under future climate change and socio-economic development is indispensable for adaptive planning and sustainable management of water resources. This case study strives to assess the water quality and quantity status for both the present and the near future in the Ciliwung River basin inside the Jakarta Province under different scenarios using population growth with planned additional wastewater management infrastructure by 2030 as mentioned in the local master plan, and comparing the above conditions with the addition of the effects of climate change. Biochemical oxygen demand (BOD), chemical oxygen demand (COD) and nitrate (NO3), the three important indicators of aquatic ecosystem health, were simulated to assess river pollution. Simulation results suggest that water quality in year 2030 will further deteriorate compared to the base year 2000 due to population growth and climate change, even considering the planned wastewater management infrastructure. The magnitude of impact from population growth is far greater than that from climate change. Simulated values of NO3, BOD and COD ranged from 6.07 to 13.34 mg/L, 7.65 to 11.41 mg/L, and 20.16 to 51.01 mg/L, respectively. Almost all of the water quality parameters exceeded the safe limit suitable for a healthy aquatic system, especially for the year 2030. The situation of water quality is worse for the downstream sampling location because of the cumulative effect of transport of untreated pollutants coming from upstream, as well as local dumping. This result will be useful for local policy makers and stakeholders involved in the water sector to formulate strategic and adaptive policies and plan for the future. One of the potential policy interventions is to implement a national integrated sewerage and septage management program on a priority basis, considering various factors like population density and growth, and global changes for both short- and long-term measures.