ARTICLE
TITLE

Analyzing the Effects of Oil Price Uncertainty on Macroeconomic Variables of the Country (1960-2014)

SUMMARY

Major economic studies in the field of oil prices, analyze the effects of oil price shocks on the economic structure of a country or group of countries over time, so that studies are rarely taken into account on the impact of oil price uncertainty on macroeconomic variables. In this regard, the study using time series data for the period 1960- 2014extracted from the Central Bank of the Islamic Republic of Iran and the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, the effects of the uncertainty of oil prices on macroeconomic variables including GDP domestic, government spending and investment is analyzed. For this reason, using generalized autoregressive conditional variance specified uncertainty oil prices and its effect through Granger causality test and impulse response function and vector regression models were estimated. The results of Granger causality test show that the oil price uncertainty is due to the variability of GDP fluctuations and investment in the country. The impulse response functions and variance analysis show that oil price uncertainty is a factor disturb macroeconomic variables in the country. 

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