SUMMARY
Young and newly listed firms who bankrupt more likely in 5 years, have limited historical records. Assessing financial failure risks and predicting bankruptcies is essential for investors and creditors to with data that limited to time. In this study, Ran Lojistik Corporation, who realized financial failure, is analyzed by failure risk prediction models and traditional financial methods. We determined the earliest time period of first abnormal signals by examining overall models and methods. According to our findings Altman Z-score predicts failure from the first quarter but does not signal for a specific quarter. Shirata Z-score is not worked to predict, also accounting betas that we estimate do not signal itself but used for overall examination. We obtained the signalled quarters by traditional methods’ examination. Overall, we considered all the methods and models together and determined the appearance of many anomalies is in 2011/6. ÖzetBirçok genç sirket ilk 5 yil içerisinde iflas noktasina gelmektedir ve borsaya yeni kote olan sirketlerin de halka açik verileri en çok 3 yil geriye gitmektedir. Bu durum yatirimcilar ve kredi verenlerin kisitli veri ile finansal basarisizlik riskinin hesaplanmasi ve finansal sikisiklik tahminlemelerini güçlestirmektedir. Çalismada, finansal basarisizlik yasamis olan Ran Lojistik AS. farkli finansal basarisizlik riski modelleri ve geleneksel yöntemlerle analiz edilerek verilere iliskin ilk anormal sinyallerin alindigi dönem belirlenmeye çalisilmistir. Bulgularimiza göre, klasik tahmin modellerinin yani sira mali tablolar da analiz edilerek bir degerlendirme yapildiginda iflasi isaret eden dönemler belirlenebilmektedir. 2011/6 dönemi birçok anomalinin ortaya çiktigi bir dönem olarak belirlenmistir.