SUMMARY
The source of the hazard which is the main factor of disasters can be made by naturally or man. These are generally independent sources, but sometimes reason of one hazard such as flood can be both naturally and man-made. Certainly, all examples in our country and the world show that, the fail of constructed structures on the rivers (e.g. dam, embankment) produce a very large amount of water and damage more than the normal river floods. In this study, based on cofferdam of Çokal Dam breaching which occurred in 16 November 2007 on the Kavak River (Çanakkale), 1D modeling of probable Çokal Dam break take in the account tectonic properties of the area and analyzing of the flood risk have been done. For these purposes, Digital Elevation Model (DEM) gathered contours from 1:25000 scaled topographic maps and GPS points, high and medium resolution satellite images, hydrological soil data gathered from soil maps scaled 1:25000, precipitation and discharge data in 30 years, technical properties of structures on the Kavak River and field measurement have been used as a database. All these data is processed and analyzed using Geographic Information System (GIS), Hec-GeoRAS and HEC-RAS hydraulic models and hydrologic model. Hence, Çokal Dam break modeling based on cofferdam breach modeling reveals that probable flood after the dam-break will affect Evrese Plain and the people which get livelihood from the plain. General probable lost in agricultural product after probable flood reaches TL 12 million. Thus, as a result of human interventions to the nature will cause great harm to himself again.