SUMMARY
One of the main and important sections of the offshore gas and gas condensate field’s development project is the forecast of hydrocarbon recovery coefficient. The most accurate forecast of the hydrocarbon recovery factor of offshore gas and gas condensate deposits is of particular importance for the quality management of their development processes through the timely establishment and implementation of the necessary priority measures. In view of this, the object of research is prediction of hydrocarbon recovery of offshore gas and gas condensate deposits at different stages of their development. The task of selection of models of prediction of coefficients of current and final gas and condensate recovery of sea gas and gas condensate deposits is investigated by creation of special models of their determination for different periods before watering. It is noted that for long-term gas and gas condensate fields, the use of evolutionary models is more efficient and efficient for accurate forecasting of recoverable gas reserves at certain stages of development. Evolutionary models were constructed in two stages – preliminary analysis stage (training interval) and prediction stage (examination interval). As a result of the research, reliable models are proposed for forecasting the coefficients of current and final gas and condensate recovery of offshore gas and gas condensate deposits by different stages of development. A distinctive feature of this definition of hydrocarbon recovery field coefficient prediction models is the use of balance and recoverable deposit reserves data for different stages of development. The study used geological and field data on the VII horizon of the Sangachal-Sea-Duvanna-Sea-Hara-Zira field (Azerbaijan). On the basis of selected mathematical models, coefficients of current and final hydrocarbon recovery can be determined at different stages and efficiency of the process of development of deposits can be estimated. The obtained results will create opportunities to control the development strategy of the deposit and to select the optimal method of determining geological and technical measures used to increase the coefficient of final hydrocarbon recovery.