ARTICLE
TITLE

Dynamic Analysis On Export, FDI and Growth in Indonesia: An Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) Model

SUMMARY

This study aims to test the export-led-growth (ELG) hypothesis in Indonesia after the implementation of trade liberalization and analyze the relevance of policies that can be taken by the government. The data used in this study is time series data from 1970- 2020. The analysis method of this research uses the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model by applying three models. Model 1 shows that in the short term the ELG hypothesis is proven valid but in the long term the ELG hypothesis is invalid in Indonesia. This is reinforced in model 2 in both of short and long term that real GDP is insignificant to real exports. In the long term, model 2 shows that real exports have a positive effect on FDI and vice versa in model 3 that real GDP has no effect on FDI. The implementation of the results illustrates to policy makers that strong economic growth can attract export capabilities in Indonesia, but policies that are based on economic growth have vulnerabilities to global dynamics that can affect export activities and the investment climate in Indonesia, so export market diversification policies need to be implemented to be able to reach a wider market. From the investment side, it is necessary to carry out structural reforms (such as policies, financial systems, and infrastructure development) so that there is certainty for foreign investors to invest in Indonesia.

 Articles related

Muhammad Tasrif    

It is an accepted view that technological progress is an extremelyimportant, perhaps the most important, determinant in the growth in output per man. Therefore, the government's policies related to the R & D activities to spur the development of the tech... see more


Godfrey Marozva    

This article investigates stock return volatility and contagion among the five African countries (Zimbabwe, South Africa, Egypt, Kenya, and Nigeria) and the United States of America for the period between 1998 and 2015. Engle (2002)’s Dynamic Conditional... see more


Tekiner Kaya, Yetkin Cinar    

Efficiency measurement is an important analysis for institutions in order to investigate their performance comparatively. On the other hand, evaluating efficiency of institutions carrying out more than one activity using common resources is important man... see more


Alain Daou, Egide Karuranga, Zhan Su    

This paper combines the resource-based and dynamic capabilities views to examine intellectual capital in Mexican small and medium enterprises (SMEs) and its relation to competitive advantage. Following an exploratory approach, this paper relies on face-t... see more


Nicolaas Strydom,Gideon Els    

AbstractThe Journal of Economic and Financial Sciences (JEF) reaches its tenth year of publishing in 2016. This paper explores the manuscript characteristics, authorship dynamics and main research trends of the journal’s first decade by analysing 245 pub... see more