O efeito da volatilidade da taxa de câmbio sobre o comércio internacional: uma investigação empírica sob a ótica da margem extensiva
Palavras-chave:
Margem extensiva, Firmas heterogêneas, Equação gravitacional, Máxima verossimilhança de PoissonResumo
O objetivo central do presente trabalho é analisar o efeito da volatilidade da taxa de câmbio sobre a margem extensiva do comércio internacional. Em termos metodológicos, definiu-se como margem extensiva do comércio internacional o número de produtos exportados pelos países para os seus parceiros comerciais. Posteriormente, essa variável foi inserida como dependente em um modelo gravitacional de comércio, cujos parâmetros foram estimados pela técnica de dados em painel não linear. O período de análise compreendido no presente trabalho foi de 1995 a 2009 e o número de países considerados no estudo foi 54. Os resultados indicam que o acréscimo de 1% na volatilidade da taxa de câmbio causa uma redução entre 0,004% a 0,008% na margem extensiva do comércio internacional.
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Copyright (c) 2014 Alex Sander Carmo, Mauricio Vaz Lobo Bittencourt
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